If the current restrictions remain in place until the end of May, we estimate that the cumulative loss of activity could amount to around $10.5 billion, or around 0.34 percentage point (pp) of annual nominal gross domestic product, say Barclays economists.
Shares of small-cap companies have been on a roll with the S&P BSE Small-Cap index hitting a new high in intra-day deals on Thursday. The rally has been fueled by an up move in stocks of chemicals, cement, graphite electrode makers, pharmaceuticals and information technology (IT) shares. In the past two weeks, since March 25, the index has outperformed the market by gaining 7.3 per cent. In comparison, the S&P BSE Midcap index was up 6.1 per cent, while the S&P BSE Sensex gained 3.6 per cent during the same period.
'They can shift to dynamic asset allocation funds to automatically rebalance their equity exposure.'
However, despite Covid, Indian markets registered their best financial year performance in a decade, with the Sensex and Nifty50 rallying 68 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively, in FY21.
The divestment process, however, will not be an easy affair as there are multiple stakeholders, including the employee unions, whose concerns will have to be addressed.
Lenders can now initiate recovery proceedings since the SC has lifted the standstill on asset classification, which protected stressed accounts from slipping into NPAs.
The markets have been unable to sustain at higher levels as a rise in bond yields globally, especially in the US have dented sentiment. Surging commodity prices, especially crude oil that have now hit $70 a barrel (Brent) coupled with inflation woes and fear of sporadic lockdown across major economic hubs back home as Covid cases rise have chased the bulls away. In the short-term, analysts expect the markets to remain volatile as they react to news flow - both from overseas and developments back home. Investors, they say, need to keep a tab on how the US treasury yields move, which in turn will have a ripple effect on how big money moves across developed (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs), including India.
Despite a massive underperformance at the bourses since the last six months, analysts are turning optimistic on Reliance Industries (RIL). Those at Jefferies, for instance, say that the company is a proxy play for India's consumption growth story. The key catalysts for the stock, according to a Jeffries note, include faster-than-expected market share gain in retail, oil-to-chemicals (O2C) stake sale, recovery in gross refining margins (GRM), potential public listing of Jio and even a possible banking licence going ahead. That apart, analysts feel any tariff hike in Reliance Jio (RJio) - its telecom venture - will also aid performance. With balance sheet adequately de-levered, proceeds from a strategic stake sale in the O2C business will create a sizeable war chest for the company, analysts say.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala-backed Nazara Technologies is all set to hit the primary market with its Rs 583-crore IPO on Wednesday. The diversified and online gaming firm's three-day issue will run through March 17-19 and will be entirely an offer for sale (OFS). While 5.29 million equity shares will be offloaded via OFS by some of the shareholders, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, who owns 3.29 million shares or 11.51 per cent stake in the company as of September 30, 2020, has decided to hold on to his stake. The issue has a price band of Rs 1,100-1,101 and will be available in lots of 13 shares and multiples thereof.
Government-controlled oil-marketing companies (OMCs) have held back petrol and diesel price revisions for a week and are expected to continue doing so, ostensibly owing to political reasons. It appears that the Centre has informally conveyed to the three major OMCs to not revise fuel prices for the time being, two people in the government said. This informal directive follows the talks between the Centre and states on cutting taxes and bringing the auto fuels under the good service tax regime not fetching the desired results, so far.
The current up move, according to analysts, closely resembles the rally post the global financial crisis in 2008-09, not just in quantum and speed, but also the way small-and mid-cap indices outperformed large-cap peers.
Low home loan rates by banks could put large players in an advantageous position over smaller non-bank players, believe analysts.
IMD expects day temperatures to remain above-normal in select regions across the country between March and May 2021.
sharper-than-expected economic recovery back home, analysts say, can fuel a further rally in domestic cyclicals, industrials, and financials as global central banks continue with their easy money policy.
Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies reiterate his bullish view on Indian equities on the back of a steady fall in Covid cases coupled with a sharp economic recovery in India, reports Puneet Wadhwa.
'The recent price hike would only be beneficial if the airlines continue to operate at 80 per cent airline capacity. An increase towards 90 or 100 per cent airline capacity would again add pressure to the fares as demand remains muted. Also, we are in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year which is a seasonally weaker quarter,' says an analyst.
Auto companies are now grappling with a slowdown in sales, triggered by pent up demand due to the COVID-led lockdown easing a bit and supply-side issues for raw material.
Analysts, however, suggest investors remain selective on realty stocks and buy only where there is revenue visibility and a credible promoter backing.
Thus far in FY21, BSE, NSE have rallied 70 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively.
PSU divestment, LIC IPO, fiscal deficit: Budget 2021 marks a clear change in the Modi government's stance from fiscal conservatism to growth orientation.
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